Morgan Stanley Makes Bold Prediction on Housing
Investment firm Morgan Stanley has high hopes for the housing market’s recovery this year and next.
“We expect to see 2012 end with an increase of 7 to 9 percent for the year in aggregate home prices after considering seasonality effects for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of a 10 to 12 percent increase on the bullish side and a 4 to 6 percent increase as the bear case,” according to Morgan Stanley analysts in its latest Housing Markets Insight report. “We view the bear case outcome to be relatively less likely.”
Morgan Stanley analysts say that home shoppers need to have more access to credit in order to finance their home purchases to keep the housing recovery strong. A tight lending environment has kept many would-be buyers out.
“Recent actions by the Federal Reserve, the commitment to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the launch of an open-ended QE3, convince us that this low mortgage rate environment and the demand response for housing are likely to prevail for an extended period — well into the future,” the Morgan Stanley analysts conclude.